| Citation: | XUE X R，HUANG S C，WEI D Z. Operational intention inference of UAV cluster based on bridging distributions[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics，2023，49（10）：2679-2688 （in Chinese） doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2021.0719
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Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to infer the attack intention of UAV clusters effectively,in this paper, a UAV cluster motion model is proposed based on cluster coordination rules and a Markov bridging distribution derived from an integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck（IOU） motion process with explicit velocity definition. Based on this, a method to optimize the Bayesian intention inference results is proposed by using the idea of the reachable domain.The stochastic differential equation is used to combine the cluster cooperative motion model with the Markov bridge model, and the discrete form of the model is derived. The method of using the reachable domain to optimize the Bayesian intention inference results is derived second, based on the fundamental Bayesian inference method, taking into account the restriction of the destination state on the cluster state, by calculating the reachable domain of the cluster and modifying the measurement likelihood. The results of the simulations demonstrate that the proposed model is capable of simulating the cluster’s movement process with great accuracy and effectively predicting the cluster’s operational intention.
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